World Social Indicators: Introduction

Is the state of the world getting better or getting worse? How would you answer that question? What indicators would you look to?

In his book Making the Best of It: Following Jesus in the Real World, John Stackhouse makes the case that our mission is to seek the greatest shalom possible in the world, always cognizant that shalom in its fullness will only be recognized at the consummation of the new creation after Christ's return. I think he's right on target. But how would we measure shalom?

A few weeks ago, I was at a worship service where Isaiah 65:17-25 was the Scripture text.

17 For I am about to create new heavens
and a new earth;
the former things shall not be remembered
or come to mind.
18 But be glad and rejoice forever
in what I am creating;
for I am about to create Jerusalem as a joy,
and its people as a delight.
19 I will rejoice in Jerusalem,
and delight in my people;
no more shall the sound of weeping be heard in it,
or the cry of distress.
20 No more shall there be in it
an infant that lives but a few days,
or an old person who does not live out a lifetime;
for one who dies at a hundred years will be considered a youth,
and one who falls short of a hundred will be considered accursed.
21 They shall build houses and inhabit them;
they shall plant vineyards and eat their fruit.
22 They shall not build and another inhabit;
they shall not plant and another eat;
for like the days of a tree shall the days of my people be,
and my chosen shall long enjoy the work of their hands.
23 They shall not labor in vain,
or bear children for calamity;
for they shall be offspring blessed by the LORD --
and their descendants as well.
24 Before they call I will answer,
while they are yet speaking I will hear.
25 The wolf and the lamb shall feed together,
the lion shall eat straw like the ox;
but the serpent -- its food shall be dust!
They shall not hurt or destroy
on all my holy mountain, (NRSV)

Several themes jump out from this characterization of a world restored to shalom. There are some very practical and specific features:

• God will delight in his people and be attentive to them. (18-19, 24)
• Safety will prevail. (19)
• Infant mortality will cease. (20)
• Life expectancy will increase beyond 100 years. (20)
• There will be a just and prosperous order in society (absence of war and oppression.) (21-24)
• Nature itself will be altered into a more peaceful order. (25)

The New Testament version of the new creation expands this vision even further. In the New Testament, God dwells with humankind, and there is eternal life. But it seems that if we look at the features of shalom like the ones in this Isaiah passage as standards, we can get a good sense of whether or not the world is moving in the right direction.

Especially interesting about this Isaiah passage is the direct reference to infant mortality rates and life expectancy. Demographers and sociologists frequently turn to these measures for an overall sense of societal welfare. Why? These two indicators serve as indirect indicators of other societal realities. Many other social variables (i.e., adequate food, health care, environment, social stability, healthy social institutions, and low crime) must be positive for these two variables to be positive.

What was particularly interesting about the worship service I attended was that the preacher used this passage to point to the declining state of shalom in our world. Rising inequality, AIDS, poverty in Africa, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and polar bears drowning due to melting ice (the last one was in the prayer of confession.) The pastor was not alone. Earlier this year, I extensively reviewed Brain McLaren's Everything Must Change, in which he characterizes the present world order as a "suicide machine." Is this an accurate assessment? I think not.

The most common trait in these assessments is that they are usually thoroughly ahistorical. They are without context. What I want to do with this series is offer some thoughts about how we might measure shalom, at least from the perspective of physical and material matters over lengthy periods. (Regular readers of the Kruse Kronicle have seen some of this before.) I'll do several posts that look at some key indicators. As you will see, I conclude that we live in an era of unprecedented expansion of global shalom.

That is not to say we are at some Francis Fukuyama-like "End of History" moment, but the idea that the global village is in decline is indefensible. Unprecedented positive change is underway and has been for some time. Yet there are still a billion or more people who are untouched by these world events. After presenting my indicators, I will do a few posts on Paul Collier's The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It.

I hope you'll join me for some conversation.

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Comments

[Danny Gamache]

Good post Michael,

Stackhouse's book sounds like it is something I should read. I'll have to put it on my list (unfortunately my list gets pretty long!). I like the idea of Shalom, or the idea of Kingdom, as the unifying thought for our ideal world progress.

Certainly we need to look at things in a historical context, and I would also have problems with the pessimistic attitudes that many have when they look at our world.

We need to praise God for the Shalom that we find in this world, and focus in on bringing Shalom to the rest of the world.

Danny

[Michael W. Kruse]

Thanks Danny. Stackhouse's book is one of the best books I've read on dealing with ethical questions. I count it among the most important books I've ever read. I reviewed it here

The biggest resistance I get in discussing this topic is the presumption that I must be some (evil) neoclassical economics, "End of History" like, nut job to suggest the world has been and is improving.

We'll see how it plays out with the coming posts.

[VanSkaamper]

Your question about how we define Shalom is highly relevant, because it seems to me that by any rational historical standard humanity is materially much better off now than ever before.

The most common trait I find in these assessments is that they are usually thoroughly ahistorical. They are without context.

It's getting increasingly difficult for me to believe that that those who rely on an ahistorical argument do so for any other reason that the fact that the source of their dissatisfaction with the world is political.

For some Shalom and global free market captialism are contradictory ideas.

[Michael W. Kruse]

Van, I don't doubt that there is an element of truth to what you say. But I also think that most people simply are not aware of how profound and quickly change has been happening.

The status of emerging nations has changed radically since I was in grad school 20-25 years ago. Many still see the world in terms of developed nation and poor nations as it was thirty years ago. In fact, there is a whole gradation of nations from poor to rich with many in a positive state of flux while some are in great peril.

I'll try to give those with whom I disagree the benefit of the doubt because I've known too many who were sincere but in error. However, I've also met many of the characters you describe as well. (But of course, I totally rule out that I could be in error on some of this *grin*)