The Fourth Turning is Here

“Sometime around the year 2005, perhaps a few years before or after, America will enter the Four Turning.”

This is the opening sentence to Chapter 10 of Strauss and Howe’s book The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy, as they begin discussing their future expectations. The book was written in the mid-1990s. The authors go on to say,

“A spark will ignite a new mood. Today [c. 1996], the same spark would flame briefly but then extinguish, its last flicker merely confirming and deepening the Unraveling-era mind-set. This time though it will catalyze a Crisis. In retrospect, the spark might seem as ominous as a financial crash, as ordinary as a national election, or as trivial as a Tea Party. It could be a rapid succession of small events in which the ominous, the ordinary, and the trivial are commingled.” (p. 272)

Based on what might trigger the fourth turning, Strauss and Howe list five scenarios simply to give some examples of the things that could happen. Their second scenario was,

“A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons. The United States and its allies launch a preemptive strike. The terrorists threaten to retaliate against an American city. Congress declares war and authorizes unlimited house-to-house searches. Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes. A nationwide strike is declared. Foreign capital flees the U.S.” (p. 273)

Terrorists attack using aircraft? A threat of nuclear weapons in the hands of terrorists? Preemptive strikes? War declared? President's opponents charge the president concocted the emergency? Is any of this sounding familiar?

The events of September were undoubtedly the initiation of the fourth turning. That doesn’t mean the war in Iraq will be the defining issue that will bring the fourth turning to its climax. The stock market crash of 1929 sparked the last fourth turning, but the climax wasn’t reached until near the end of World War II, 15 years later. Similarly, if this turning unfolds like other fourth turnings, except the Civil War, the climax is probably 10-15 years away. What will it look like? Who knows? Strauss and Howe give seven examples of distress that could bring things to the brink. It could be any of these types of events or some commingling.

• Economic distress, with public debt in default, entitlement trust funds in bankruptcy, mounting poverty and unemployment, trade wars, collapsing financial markets, and hyperinflation (or deflation)
• Social distress, with violence fueled by class, race, nativism, or religion and abetted by armed gangs, underground militias, and mercenaries hired by walled communities.
• Cultural distress, with the media plunging into dizzying decay, and a decency backlash in favor of state censorship
• Ecological distress, with atmospheric damage, energy or water shortages, and new diseases
• Technological distress, with atmospheric damage, energy or water shortages, and new diseases
• Political distress, with institutional collapse, open tax revolts, authoritarianism, and altered national borders
• Military distress, with war against terrorists or foreign regimes equipped with weapons of mass destruction. (Fourth Turning, p. 277)

Strauss and Howe have written that cultures seem almost driven to create crises that require reunification and recommitment to the culture for it to survive. Each crisis is followed by euphoria, which leads to disillusion and unraveling, which culminates in a crisis. These are the four seasons or turnings. They are not the first to observe this. Thinkers and philosophers dating back to the Greeks have seen similar dynamics.

As we enter the fourth turning, what does it mean for those alive today? I will tie this all together and wrap this up tomorrow.

Comments

[Daniel]

I read that book years ago. Very interesting and wise stuff. Their dates are just estimates. I bet if you asked them they would say the turned happened on 9/11.

[Michael Kruse]

Yes, Daniel. In fact, that is what the claim at their www.lifecourse.com website.

They haven't yet suggested a date for the end of the Millennnial Generation and the beginning of the "Artist" generation, although those clearly are the infants and toddlers of today. I am guessing the generation ended about 1998-2000 based on the fact that most generations start 1-5 years before a turning.

We will see. Thanks for dropping by!

[gruntled]

In their previous book, Thirteenth Gen, Howe and Strauss argued the then-implausible idea that the Gen Xers, after a wild youth, would face a time of great test, probably a great war. In their time of trial, Howe and Strauss predicted that Gen X (what they call the 13th generation) would prove to be great military leaders, and would rebuild basic institutions. This has proved even more prescient, I think, than The Fourth Turning.

[Michael Kruse]

Someday I am going to have to go back and make a list of their forecasts and do a scorecard.

In rereading some of this stuff, I had the experience of reading something they wrote and saying to myself "Well of course that will happen. It is happening now." only to remember that what I was reading was written 10-15 years ago. I think the have gotten a host of things right.

[jack]

i am doiing a term progect (8th grade)
on this, the generations and turnings.
i need more specific information past a Crisis war for the future and millenium generation

[Michael W. Kruse]

Jack, I am not sure that Strauss and Howe would necessarily say that a war is inevitable but that a fourth turning will culminate a major crisis (altough the last three were wars: Rev War, Civil War, WWII). I think most people who follow this stuff think 9/11 was the beginning of this crisis era and, if Strauss and Howe are right, we could be a decade or more from reaching a the high point of the crisis.

Does that help?