Carpe Diem (Mark Perry): Oil Prices, Global GDP, Net Oil Exports
...Although the decline of the dollar and the increase in speculative activity might have played relatively minor roles in the run-up of oil prices, the main contributing factor to high oil prices over the last two years appears to be the supply-demand imbalance that started in mid-2006. With the significant increase in world output and the accompanying increase world demand for oil and energy interacing with a flat and/or falling world supply of oil, there was only one direction for oil prices to go. Up. Nothing mysterious, nothing nefarious, and nothing to do with speculators. Supply and demand. Period. In other words, it's Occam's razor.