Kruse Kronicle

Wheat Prices Plunge By 70% in Three Months

Carpe Diem: Wheat Prices Plunge By 70% in Three Months

"On a recent CD post "As Share of Disposable Income, Food Is Still Cheap," Machiavelli999 left a comment about the falling price of wheat. The graph above confirms his observation - spot wheat prices have actually fallen by almost 70% in the last three months from $9.36 per bushel in February to $5.54 per bushel in February, and prices are now at their lowest level in almost a year (since June 2007 when wheat was $5.34)."

Why did the Presbyterian Chicken Cross the Road?

You may have see my post on Wednesday, Why the chicken crossed the road - update. That got me thinking. I wonder why the Presbtyerian (PCUSA) chicken crossed the road?

Here are my top ten reasons (in no particular order) why the Presbyterian chicken crossed the road. Have I missed some?

• To be more inclusive of chickens on the other side of the road.
• The chicken was preordained to cross the road.
• Because the Democrats moved to the other side of the road.
• To demonstrate decent and orderly jaywalking.
• Because G-6.0106Z of the Book of Order prohibits crossing roads.
• Because there was a non-geographical Evangelical Presbyterian Church presbytery waiting to greet the chicken on the other side of the road.
• Someone was talking about sex and ordination on the other side of the road.
• Southern Baptists showed up on the chicken’s side of the road.
• It was the chicken’s vocation and call to cross the road.
• To form a taskforce to study Peace, Unity, and Poultry.

Malthus, the false prophet

The Economist: Malthus, the false prophet

The pessimistic parson and early political economist remains as wrong as ever.

AMID an astonishing surge in food prices, which has sparked riots and unrest in many countries and is making even the relatively affluent citizens of America and Europe feel the pinch, faith in the ability of global markets to fill nearly 7 billion bellies is dwindling. Given the fear that a new era of chronic shortages may have begun, it is perhaps understandable that the name of Thomas Malthus is in the air. Yet if his views were indeed now correct, that would defy the experience of the past two centuries.

Malthus first set out his ideas in 1798 in “An Essay on the Principle of Population”. This expounded a tragic twin trajectory for the growth of human populations and the increase of food supply. Whereas the natural tendency was for populations to grow without end, food supply would run up against the limit of finite land. As a result, the “positive checks” of higher mortality caused by famine, disease and war were necessary to bring the number of people back in line with the capacity to feed them. ,,,

...His ideas, especially his later ones, were arguably an accurate description of pre-industrial societies, which teetered on a precarious balance between empty and full stomachs. But the industrial revolution, which had already begun in Britain, was transforming the long-term outlook for economic growth. Economies were starting to expand faster than their populations, bringing about a sustained improvement in living standards....

...The Malthusian heresy re-emerged in the early 1970s, the last time food prices shot up. Then, at least, there appeared to be some cause for demographic alarm. Global-population growth had picked up sharply after the second world war because it took time for high birth rates in developing countries to follow down the plunge in infant-mortality rates brought about by modern medicine. But once again the worries about overpopulation proved mistaken as the “green revolution” and further advances in agricultural efficiency boosted food supply.

If the world's population growth was a false concern four decades ago, when it peaked at 2% a year, it is even less so now that it has slowed to 1.2%. But even though crude demography is not to blame, changing lifestyles arising from rapid economic growth especially in Asia are a new worry. As the Chinese have become more affluent, they have started to consume more meat, raising the underlying demand for basic food since cattle need more grain to feed than humans. Neo-Malthusians question whether the world can provide 6.7 billion people (rising to 9.2 billion by 2050) with a Western-style diet.

Once again the gloom is overdone. ...

...A new form of Malthusian limit has more recently emerged through the need to constrain greenhouse-gas emissions in order to tackle global warming. But this too can be overcome by shifting to a low-carbon economy. As with agriculture, the main difficulty in making the necessary adjustment comes from poor policies, such as governments' reluctance to impose a carbon tax. There may be curbs on traditional forms of growth, but there is no limit to human ingenuity. That is why Malthus remains as wrong today as he was two centuries ago.

Global food prices fall in April

BBC: Global food prices fall in April

World food prices fell in April for the first time in 15 months, according to figures from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

Its food price index fell to 216.7 from 217.0 in March, having surged from last April's figure of 141.7.

The FAO said it was important to be cautious about the figure, but that it was time to be a little bit optimistic.

But other analysts warned that many of the factors that have boosted food prices had not gone away. ...

Quagmire to goldmine?

The Economist: Quagmire to goldmine?

The rapid growth in developing countries prompts a rethink by drugs companies.

BRAZIL has long been a thorn in the side of the global drugs companies. The country's vibrant generics industry has often trampled over their patents. As recently as last year, its government threatened to invoke compulsory licensing (a legal mechanism that, in effect, legitimises such trampling) to browbeat a foreign drugs firm into offering huge discounts. And Brazil's state-funded researchers have devised some impressive drugs, including a new therapy for malaria (see article). Small wonder, then, that big drugs firms have remained leery of this market.

Indeed, they have been cautious about developing countries in general, which they have regarded as the source of many headaches and few profits. A decade ago Britain's GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) got a bloody nose in South Africa when it tried too vigorously to defend patents on an HIV drug. More recently Novartis, a Swiss firm, lost a bitter battle in India over patent protection for Gleevec, a profitable cancer drug. In Thailand the government has invoked compulsory licensing for some drugs. And next week the industry can expect another drubbing over patents harming “innovation for the poor” at the World Health Organisation's annual assembly.

But consider the story of Moksha8, a new drugs firm launched last month with money from Texas Pacific Group, a private-equity outfit. It aims to capitalise on Big Pharma's neglect of many emerging economies by striking licensing deals for branded drugs which it, in turn, intends to market to affluent customers in those countries. It already has some two dozen drugs under licence for Brazil from Roche and Pfizer. Fernando Reinach of Votorantim, a Brazilian firm that also invested in Moksha8, expects its annual sales to top $1 billion within a year or two.

All of which suggests that the situation is ripe for change. For much of its history, the industry has focused chiefly on the diseases that afflict people in rich countries, while largely neglecting research into diseases of the poor. But as growth slows in developed markets, and the twin threats of generic drugs and price controls advance even in pharma-friendly America, drugs companies are thinking again. ...

Willow Creek's 'Huge Shift'

Christianity Today: Willow Creek's 'Huge Shift'

After modeling a seeker-sensitive approach to church growth for three decades, Willow Creek Community Church now plans to gear its weekend services toward mature believers seeking to grow in their faith.

The change comes on the heels of an ongoing four-year research effort first made public late last summer in Reveal: Where Are You?, a book coauthored by executive pastor Greg Hawkins. Hawkins said during an annual student ministries conference in April that Willow Creek would also replace its midweek services with classes on theology and the Bible.

Whether more changes are in store for the suburban Chicago megachurch isn't clear. Hawkins declined CT's interview request, and senior pastor Bill Hybels was unavailable for comment. ...

The Earth Destroyed by Fire?

Concerning the idea that the earth will be consumed in a great conflagration at the end, Michael Wittmer writes in Heaven is a Place on Earth:

This popular, though misguided notion likely arises from a misunderstanding of 2 Peter 3:10-13.

But the day of the Lord will come like a thief. The heavens will disappear with a roar; the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything in it will be laid bare.  Since everything will be destroyed in this way, what kind of people ought you to be? You ought to live holy and godly lives as you look forward to the day of God and speed its coming. That day will bring about the destruction of the heavens by fire, and the elements will melt in the heat. But in keeping with his promise we are looking forward to a new heaven and a new earth, the home of righteousness.

During the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries, the best available Greek manuscripts of 2 Peter 3:10 read that “the earth and all of its works will be burned up.” This is how every translation of that period, including the King James Version, rendered the verse. It is easy to see how whole generations of Christians learned from their Bibles to expect a future fire that would annihilate the entire world.

However, scholars have since discovered older, more reliable Greek manuscripts, and these texts say that rather than burning up, “the earth and all of its works will be found.” Instead of being destroyed, this term “found” implies that the quality of our works will be “laid bare,” discovered for all to see. Much like gold passing through a smelting furnace, the good that we do will be purified while our less noble efforts will slough off. Read this way, Peter’s vision of a coming conflagration seems to be purging rather than annihilating fire.

Perhaps this is why Peter compares the coming “destruction” by fire with the world’s previous “destruction” by water (2 Peter 3:6-7). Justas the Great Flood did not annihilate the world but primarily cleansed it of its numerous sinners, so the impending fire seems to perform an ethical cleansing rather than an ontological annihilation. In short, if the “destruction” of the flood did not annihilate the world, why should we think that the future “destruction” by fire will do so?

Peter’s point is that since the coming conflagration will purge the earth of its impurities, strive to live such good lives that when you and the works of your hands pass through the refining fire, both you and your cultural contributions will survive. Thus, rather than give cause for despair, Peter’s admonition inspires hope that our highest cultural achievements, such as the Mona Lisa, Westminster Abbey, and Eine Kleine Nachtmusik, will make it through to the new heaven and new earth.

Why the chicken crossed the road - update

BARACK OBAMA:
The chicken crossed the road because it was time for a CHANGE! The chicken wanted CHANGE!

JOHN MC CAIN:
My friends, that chicken crossed the road because he recognized the need to engage in cooperation and dialogue with all the chickens on the other side of the road.

HILLARY CLINTON:
When I was First Lady, I personally helped that little chicken to cross the road. This experience makes me uniquely qualified to ensure -- right from Day One! -- that every chicken in this country gets the chance it deserves to cross the road. But then, this really isn't about me.......

DR. PHIL:
The problem we have here is that this chicken won't realize that he must
first deal with the problem on 'THIS' side of the road before it goes
after the problem on the 'OTHER SIDE' of the road. What we need to do is
help him realize how stupid he's acting by not taking on his 'CURRENT'
problems before adding 'NEW' problems.

OPRAH:
Well, I understand that the chicken is having problems, which is why he
wants to cross this road so bad. So instead of having the chicken learn
from his mistakes and take falls, which is a part of life, I'm going to
give this chicken a car so that he can just drive across the road and
not live his life like the rest of the chickens.

GEORGE W. BUSH:
We don't really care why the chicken crossed the road. We just want to
know if the chicken is on our side of the road, or not. The chicken is
either against us, or for us. There is no middle ground here.

COLIN POWELL:
Now to the left of the screen, you can clearly see the satellite image
of the chicken crossing the road...

ANDERSONCOOPER - CNN:
We have reason to believe there is a chicken, but we have not yet been
allowed to have access to the other side of the road.

JOHN KERRY:
Although I voted to let the chicken cross the road, I am now against it!
It was the wrong road to cross, and I was misled about the chicken's
intentions. I am not for it now, and will remain against it.

NANCY GRACE:
That chicken crossed the road because he's GUILTY! You can see it in his
eyes and the way he walks.

PAT BUCHANAN:
To steal the job of a decent, hardworking American.

MARTHA STEWART:
No one called me to warn me which way that chicken was going. I had a
standing order at the Farmer's Market to sell my eggs when the price
dropped to a certain level. No little bird gave me any insider information.

DR SEUSS:
Did the chicken cross the road? Did he cross it with a toad? Yes, the
chicken crossed the road, but why it crossed I've not been told.

ERNEST HEMINGWAY:
To die in the rain. Alone.

JERRY FALWELL:
Because the chicken was gay! Can't you people see the plain truth?'
That's why they call it the 'other side.' Yes, my friends, that chicken
is gay. And if you eat that chicken, you will become gay too. I say we
boycott all chickens until we sort out this abomination that the liberal
media white washes with seemingly harmless phrases like 'the other side.
That chicken should not be crossing the road. It's as plain and as
simple as that.

GRANDPA:
In my day we didn't ask why the chicken crossed the road. Somebody told
us the chicken crossed the road, and that was good enough.

BARBARA WALTERS:
Isn't that interesting? In a few moments, we will be listening to the
chicken tell, for the first time, the heart warming story of how it
experienced a serious case of molting, and went on to accomplish its
life long dream of crossing the road.

ARISTOTLE:
It is the nature of chickens to cross the road.

JOHN LENNON:
Imagine all the chickens in the world crossing roads together, in peace.

BILL GATES:
I have just released eChicken2007, which will not only cross roads, but
will lay eggs, file your important documents, and balance your check
book. Internet Explorer is an integral part of eChicken. This new
platform is much more stable and will never cra...#@&&^(C% .........
reboot.

ALBERT EINSTEIN:
Did the chicken really cross the road, or did the road move beneath the
chicken?

BILL CLINTON:
I did not cross the road with THAT chicken. What is your definition of
chicken?

ALGORE:
I invented the chicken!

COLONEL SANDERS:
Did I miss one?:

DICK CHENEY:
Where's my gun?

AL SHARPTON:
Why are all the chickens white? We need some black chickens.

(HT: My mother-in-law, but I don't know the original source.)

What happened to global food prices?

Ajay Shah's Blog: What happened to global food prices? (HT: Marginal Revolution)

...Hypothesis: The spike in world food prices is caused by increased demand in China and India, particularly the shift towards consumption of meat as people get richer. My problem with this explanation is that it doesn't explain why the price index for major food crops was stable at 100 from 1990 till 2005, and spiked thereafter. China and India had a massive transformation of incomes and the structure of the food basket from 1990 to 2005.

Hypothesis: It's the evil speculators. Speculators who anticipated higher prices would have held more inventory. But the graph shows that inventories have dropped from 2000 onwards. There was less hoarding, not more. ...

...When demand is bigger than supply for a nonstorable commodity with zero short-term supply elasticity, prices would rise as much as is needed to close the gap. Demand can only shrink when some people get pinched and ease up on consumption. These are the poor. Poor people are the shock absorber that stabilise prices for non-storable agricultural commodities....

...GDP growth yields fewer poor people who respond to higher wheat prices by purchasing less meat or wheat, i.e. we have less of a shock absorber. That generates a reduced elasticity of demand of wheat. So prices have to rise by more in order to clear a supply-demand imbalance than was required in the past when there were more poor people who would adjust.

In the bad old days, people in China and India supplied the world with a large shock absorber, a large mass of poor people who tightened their belts when prices rose. This gave higher global demand elasticity and reduced price volatility. From the late 1970s, economic reforms in China and India have given greater affluence and thus diminished this shock absorber....

Interpreting the Bible: Conclusion

We’ve come to the end of this series on Kenneth Bailey’s DVD lectures on Interpreting the Bible. I’m sure I haven’t done it justice but I hope you have at least captured a sense of Bailey’s teaching.

Personally, I appreciate the succinct way he deals with the issue of inspiration and the way he describes the origin of the Bible. His overview of the formation of Luke gives a lot of good material to reflect on.

The recurring theme with Bailey throughout these lectures is that the Bible was written by people to people in specific social and historical contexts. The Bible is a faithful witness to the work of God in those contexts. Therefore, we must begin with social and historical context before moving to meditation, inspiration, and application.

We can’t do this perfectly and that is what I like about Bailey’s notion of having perspectives that are tentatively final. That is not license for timidity. We musn’t wait until we have things all figured out before we act. In fact, I believe that is in acting on what we learn in scripture through God’s leading that our interpretive skills are sharpened.

Finally, Bailey has a phrase he uses frequently. He says, “It doesn’t so much matter where you are on the ladder. What matter is did you get there by climbing or falling.” His point being that we all know imperfectly. The central issue is whether or not we are wrestling with the issues and trying to work our way up the ladder. Or are we just being sloppy and slothful. I hope that maybe this series helps move us another rung or two up the ladder.

[Index]

The Empire Strikes Barack

This has already had more than a million hits, and you've probably already seen it, but I thought I'd post it here to. (HT: Brad Wright)

4 Generations of Workers - Can You Relate?

Business Pundit: 4 Generations of Workers - Can You Relate?

Today’s workforce is a diverse mix of generations that each come with their collective background and value systems. Understanding their unique perspectives is important in a large organization where they are likely to be working side by side. Professor at the Instituto de Empresa in Madrid, Spain, Cristina Simón’s study Generation Y and the Labor Market: Models for HR Management, address differences in generational values. Simón looked at our generations of workers, analyzed their values and suggested ways for businesses to get people working together.

Four Generations and Their Values

Traditional Workers (born before 1946/over 60) ...

Baby Boomers (1946-1960/late 40s and up) ...

Generation X (1961-1979/30s and 40s) ...

Generation Y (starting from 1980/under 30) ...

New Survey Shows U.S. Religious Giving to Developing Countries at $8.8 Billion

Christian Newswire: New Survey Shows U.S. Religious Giving to Developing Countries at $8.8 Billion

WASHINGTON, May 12 /Christian Newswire/ -- The first national random sample survey of U.S. religious giving from congregations of all denominations to the developing world shows that congregations are giving record amounts in relief and development assistance to poor countries. The pioneering study, combined with other data, found that religious congregations gave $8.8 billion in 2006, according to the recently released 2008 Index of Global Philanthropy.

The Index, published annually by the Hudson Institute's Center for Global Prosperity (CGP), had previously reported religious giving of $5.4 billion for 2005, based on limited available data. The new survey, undertaken by the University of Notre Dame Center for the Study of Religion and Society, in partnership with CGP, was part of a comprehensive Notre Dame congregational survey supported by the John Templeton Foundation. This far- reaching study found that over half of U.S. congregations gave an average of $10,500 to U.S. organizations for relief and development in poor countries. Over thirty percent made donations directly to programs in developing countries as well as volunteering for short-term missions or service trips. The survey specifically excluded support for evangelism, recording expenditures only for such items as food, clothing, and medicines, as well as cash for schools, clinics and small business development. ...

The Slump: It's a Guy Thing

Business Week: The Slump: It's a Guy Thing

Men, concentrated in the weakest sectors, are losing jobs in this downturn, while women make gains.

What's going on? Simply put, men have the misfortune of being concentrated in the two sectors that are doing the worst: manufacturing and construction. Women are concentrated in sectors that are still growing, such as education and health care.

This situation is hardly good news for women, though. While they're getting more jobs, their pay is stagnant. Also, most share households—and bills—with the men who are losing jobs. And the "female" economy can't stay strong for long if the "male" economy weakens too much. ...

The First Genetically Modified Human Embryo: Advance or Abomination?

Wired: The First Genetically Modified Human Embryo: Advance or Abomination?

Scientists have created the first genetically modified human embryo.

What does this mean to you?

Led by Nikica Zaninovic, researchers at Cornell University added a green fluorescent protein to an embryo left over from assisted reproduction. They destroyed the embryo five days later. It is believed to be the first documented genetic modification of a human embryo.

British newspaper The Times reports that Zaninovic's feat was announced at the American Society for Reproductive Medicine annual meeting in 2007, but was only publicized recently when the United Kingdom's reproductive technology regulators reviewed the research. The House of Commons is about to consider legislation permitting this and other controversial reproductive technologies, such as the creation of chimeras -- human-animal hybrid embryos.

The research raises a number of thorny ethical questions. ...

Sins of Interpretation #7: Electrical Shock Theory

The final of Kenneth Bailey’s Sins of Biblical interpretation as presented in the Interpreting the Bible is what he calls the Electrical Shock Theory. If I were naming it, I’d probably call it the Free Association Theory.

Bailey makes clear that it is entirely appropriate to read the Bible for inspirational and devotional purposes. All of us should. But as we read in this manner, there still must be a connection between the author and audience’s context in our minds. There should be a relationship between what we read and what we know the author intends for his readers.

For instance, Bailey mentions that he is sitting in his study in Jerusalem on a hot summer’s day when he reads Psalm 42:7, where it says “…all you waves and billows have gone over me.” Bailey thinks to himself, “Aha! God is calling me to quit studying and to go take a nice cool swim in the ocean.” Taking a cool swim may or may not be a good idea but this is not the way God uses scripture to guide us.

To use another example of how this can play out with a document of significance to American history, Bailey begins a humorous reflection on the Gettysburg Address.

“Fourscore …”

Ah! It is a football game and they’ve reached the score of four.

“…and seven years ago….”

The game is very long. It has been going on for seven years.

“…our fathers brought forth…”

Very interesting. The mothers didn’t give birth the fathers did. I wonder what this is all about?

You can see the absurdity. But when we think of the Gettysburg Address, context immediately bursts on our minds: Lincoln. American Civil War. Battle of Gettysburg. When we read these words in this context they can be deeply inspirational but they become nonsense when we engage in free association.

The foundational principle of interpretation is this: “Try to discover what the original author intends for his readers or the original speaker for his listeners.”

Clearly some who’ve had chance to study more in depth can do this better than others but we can all do it to a substantial degree. We can at least begin by keeping in mind who the communicators are and the context they are communicating in. Our practice of this over time and in community will improve our insight and interpretation.

[Index]

Gas Prices By County

From Gas Buddy:

Sins of Interpretation #6: Changing the Ground Rules

The sixth sin of biblical interpretation in Kenneth Bailey’s Interpreting the Bible is the sin of Changing the Ground Rules.

Today, when we think of historical description, we equate accurate history with precision in the facts of recorded events. This was not the case with Middle Eastern accounts of history. Indeed, it has not been the case of most historical accounts in most civilizations throughout history. Only when we began to approach the Enlightenment in Western civilization do we begin to see the emphasis on precise factual reporting. Middle Eastern accounts of history are always theological interpretations of history. Utter precision is not important. The theological truth revealed by historical events is. Consequently, to read biblical history with the expectation that the author was writing with the mindset of a news reporter shifts the ground rules in interpretation.

Bailey invites to imagine a modern event and think about how we might describe it. For instance, we could say:

“On November 22, 1963, a man was shot.”

That is factually precise. But we might say: 

“On November 22, 1963, the president of the United States was assassinated with a rifle shot to the head while riding through Dallas, TX, in a motorcade.”

This is more factually precise and gives some clues that this was an event of significance. But we might also say:

“On November 22, 1963, the nation’s innocence was slain and the people mourned as a bullet found its mark on the streets of Dallas.”

This last rendition tells fewer details but it communicates the significance of the event in a way the factual accounts do not. Middle Eastern writing about history had this later aim far more in mind than we do and factual precision was of secondary concern. Thus, if we are to interpret authors correctly we must be conscious of their ground rules of communication and not substitute our own.

[Index]

A mother's love is like no other

Niagra Falls Review: A mother's love is like no other

Yale theologian Miroslav Volf begins a new book on the topic of giving with a dramatic personal story. ...

...Volf admits that even though he was deeply, profoundly grateful for the gift of his son, he still had a lingering negative view of a mother who would give up her baby, for any reason.

It just didn't seem right. But during that meeting his mind changed profoundly. The child's birth mother handed him a letter she had written and asked Professor Volf to read it to the boy later. "I did it for you," she wrote to her child. "Someday you will understand." Volf reflects: "She loved him for his own sake and therefore she would rather have suffered his absence if he flourished than to have enjoyed his presence if he languished. Now it was my turn to cry over the beauty and tragedy of her love." ...

...In seminary you are taught that Mother's Day is not really a religious holiday or church festival at all but a product of purely commercial interests-the greeting card people, florists, and restaurant owners-an example of how the culture invades and takes over the church, so the faithful thing to do is simply ignore it.

But the preacher learns that it is not a wise thing to do, Popular author Robert Fulghum knows this well. ...

...You've got to have the feminine, that is to say, if you want to have an authentic biblical image of God.The prophet Isaiah wrote, "Can a woman forget her nursing child? . . . Yet, I will not forget you." (Isaiah 49:15) And my favourite, from the prophet Hosea: When Israel was a child, I loved him. . . . It was I who taught [them] to walk,I took them up in my arms. . . .I was to them like thosewho lift infants to their cheeks.I bent down to them and fed them. (Hosea 11) So tomorrow as our culture celebrates Mother's Day and as we celebrate or remember with gratitude our mothers I for one will also say a prayer of thanks that there is another One whose love for me is as strong as my mother's.

Evangelism and Public Discipleship

Mouw's Musings: Evangelism and Public Discipleship

We released the “Evangelical Manifesto” yesterday at the National Press Club—see http://www.anevangelicalmanifesto.com/. I joined with the other drafters in expressing worries about the way in which the “evangelical” label has gotten too closely associated in recent years with a political activism. I do feel strongly about that, and I am an enthusiastic supporter of the “Manifesto” cause. At the same time, I am conscious of some irony in the fact that I am now speaking out in favor of holding back a bit from identifying the evangelical cause with political programs. ...

...I have not stopped being a social activist. Working for justice, peace and righteousness is an important demand of discipleship. But we must be diligent about pursuing those matters with the larger picture in mind.